- I'm outperforming the S&P 500 by between 2.5% and 3%
- I expect this gap will be closed as I have moved into a significant cash weighting
- Even in a best case scenario I only see the S&P able to get to pre-crisis highs at 1550 or so
- My fair value target is 1212
- I think we will end the year at 1375
- I've shifted my strategy from undervalued, strong FCF large caps
- I'm now looking for net-nets (GRVY), ultra low cost producers (MCF), superior management teams (MCF again) and consistent FCF small caps selling near book/replacement value
On my action list: FLL (looking to accumulate soon), CF (more due diligence needed)
On my wish list: ORCL needs to be knocked down, BNS below a 60B market cap
Hopefully "sell in May and go away" doesn't hit too hard this year. My expectation is that we'll get a 10% correction.
Happy investing, Alex
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